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Japan Steps Up Verbal Intervention, Yen Finds Temporary Breathing Room

Yen recovered broadly today after Japan delivered its strongest verbal intervention in months, temporarily slowing the currency’s slide. The shift in tone came as USD/JPY neared 160, its strongest level since July 2024, prompting officials to push back more forcefully against what they described as excessive moves. Crucially, the rhetoric was aimed at speed and […]

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Takaichi Trade Tests Yen Limits, Powell Backed by Global Central Bankers

“Takaichi trade” remained the dominant theme in markets today. Nikkei added nearly 1.5% on the day, pushing to yet another record high as Japanese driven by expectations that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s government will pursue expansionary fiscal policies and pro-growth reforms after the speculated snap election. Yen selloff extended earlier in the session, but momentum […]

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Dollar Stalls as CPI Confirms Fed Pause in January

Dollar gyrates in a tight range and remains an underperformer for the week, showing little reaction to December US consumer inflation data. With no meaningful downside surprise in the data, inflation figures effectively cemented expectations for a policy hold by the Fed at its upcoming meeting. Futures now assign around 95% probability that interest rates […]

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Yen Rout Extends as Takaichi Trade Takes Hold, Japanese Stocks Fly

Yen came under renewed and intense pressure during Asian session, as domestic equities surged more than 3% to new record highs following the market reopening. The catalyst behind the equity rally — and Yen’s decline — remains growing conviction that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is preparing to call a snap general election in February. […]

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Fed Credibility Risk Sends 10-Yr Yield Above 4.2, Euro to Benefit as Dollar Alternative?

With the economic calendar nearly empty, markets are fixated on the escalating political risk surrounding Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who is now under federal criminal investigation linked to the renovation of the Fed’s headquarters and his congressional testimony on the matter. The move has taken markets by surprise, particularly given that Powell’s term as Fed […]

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Powell–Trump Clash Adds Risk Premium, But Calm Largely Holds for Now

News of a US criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell dominated global financial headlines, injecting a fresh dose of political risk into markets. While the investigation itself was unsettling, the sharper jolt came from Powell’s unusually direct response, which framed the episode as part of a broader campaign to pressure the central bank. In […]

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Geopolitics Everywhere, Panic Nowhere in Resilient Global Markets

The first full week of 2026 delivered a barrage of geopolitical shocks that would normally be expected to rattle global markets. Instead, investors largely looked through the noise, producing a market outcome that appears counterintuitive at first glance. The most dramatic development came from Latin America, where the US carried out a direct military intervention […]

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Dollar Eases Slightly as NFP Fails to Deliver Upside Surprise

Dollar softened modestly in early US trading after the release of mixed December labor market data. The headline payroll gain undershot expectations, but the miss did little to challenge the broader narrative of a labor market that is slowing gradually rather than deteriorating abruptly. More importantly, for monetary policy, the fall in the unemployment rate […]

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Dollar Leads into NFP as USD/JPY Nears Breakout

Dollar is trading broadly higher in Asian session today, and remains the strongest performer of the week, as markets head into the December US non-farm payrolls report. Within FX, USD/JPY stands out as a pair to watch, with the pair edging closer to levels that would confirm an upside break. This week’s price action suggests […]

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Dollar Drifts Higher as Risk Tone Softens Amid Geopolitics, Tariff Ruling Looms

Market sentiment has tilted mildly risk-off, though there is no sign of aggressive follow-through selling. Price action suggests caution rather than panic, with investors trimming exposure while waiting for clearer signals from both geopolitics and economic data. Geopolitical developments continue to dominate headlines this week and look unlikely to fade quickly. The key question is […]

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Risk Tone Softens, Oil Slips and Geopolitics Linger

Global markets have turned cautious again, with the mild selloff in US equities overnight that carried into Asian trading. A key trigger was pressure on US defense stocks after President Donald Trump’s said he would block dividends and stock buybacks for defense contractors unless they address concerns including executive pay and production inefficiencies Another market […]

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ADP Reinforces ‘Cooling Not Cracking’ Jobs Narrative, Markets Back in Standby Mode

Global markets are trading in mixed fashion, with risk appetite showing early signs of fatigue after a strong start to the year. US equity futures are sluggish, pointing to a flat open after both the DOW and S&P 500 closed at record highs yesterday. December ADP private payrolls from the US came in slightly weaker […]

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Yen Recovers Amid China Export Curb, Aussie Firm Despite Softer CPI

Yen recovered modestly during the Asian session as Japanese equities edged lower, but both moves lacked conviction. The pullback in the Nikkei 225 was mild, and the corresponding FX response suggests investors see little reason to reassess the broader trend. Geopolitical developments are weighing on Japanese sentiment after China imposed export curbs on selected dual-use […]

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Caution Returns After Risk-on Moves, Australia CPI Take Over

Market conditions have settled after earlier risk-on moves, with European indexes and US futures showing little direction. The absence of follow-through buying suggests traders are shifting toward more cautious trading. With desks fully staffed again, attention is turning to Friday’s December US non-farm payrolls report. Dollar remains broadly on the back foot and will be […]

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Risk-On Mood Hits Dollar, Hammers Yen, Lifts Aussie

Risk sentiment turned decisively positive overnight and carried through the Asian session as traders looked past Venezuela-related geopolitical risks. The shift marked a clear return to risk-on positioning, and prompted a broad reversal in the Dollar, which broke lower after firming earlier on Monday. With haven demand fading, the greenback slipped to the bottom of […]

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Dollar Leads as Markets Show Fragmented Risk Reaction to Venezuela News

Forex markets are trading in mixed fashion, with hesitant tone, as investors continue to digest the controversial US seizure of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro over the weekend. While geopolitical risk has clearly entered the equation, price action suggests the response is far from a textbook risk-off move. There are visible safe-haven bids flowing into Dollar […]

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Safe-Haven Bid Lifts Dollar and Metals, But Geopolitics Fail to Disrupt Risk Assets

As liquidity conditions have normalized quickly after the holiday lull, markets are digesting the fallout from Washington’s weekend raid in Venezuela and the capture of President Nicolás Maduro. While the operation initially triggered a spike in geopolitical risk, price action suggests investors remain cautious but far from alarmed. The greenback rallied broadly alongside precious metals […]

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China PMI Bounce Fails to Lift Sentiment, Holiday Calm Continues

Markets remain stuck in a year-end lull on the final trading day of the year, with liquidity thin and participation limited. Price action across asset classes reflects consolidation rather than conviction, as investors opt to close the year defensively rather than chase late moves. Stronger-than-expected China PMI data failed to lift sentiment. While the readings […]

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FX Markets Freeze in Holiday Mode, FOMC Minutes a Highlight

Currency markets remain largely frozen, with holiday conditions draining liquidity and suppressing volatility. Also, the macro calendar offers no immediate catalyst, leaving markets with little to trade beyond positioning adjustments. As a result, price action across majors and crosses shows little urgency, with most traders waiting for January to re-engage. Focus now shifts to minutes […]

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Year-End Lull Ahead of FOMC Minutes; Geopolitics Adds Noise, Not Direction

Currency markets have entered deep holiday mode, with trading exceptionally subdued despite sharp swings elsewhere, notably in precious metals. In FX, volume and volatility have both contracted sharply. With liquidity thin and risk appetite selective, traders are choosing patience over positioning, especially with little fresh macro information to work with. December minutes from the Fed […]

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